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Post by Indefens on Mar 19, 2004 0:23:20 GMT -5
I am surprised I rarely hear this objection to Turkey's EU membership: Nearly every European state save Albania and maybe Bosnia has a natural growth rate (not factoring in or out-migration) hovering around 0%. Turkey, while not in the league of sub-Saharan Africa, is still experiencing significant population growth. As it stands now, Turkey would be second to Germany in the size of a potential EU delegation. In twenty years it would be the largest. In 50 years it is very likely that Turkey would have 100 million people! (While Germany would be down to 70 million). As I understand it (I am American so I may be wrong about some of this), the EU is essentially governed by the principle of representation according to population, with adjustments only given to very small members such as Malta and Luxembourg. Turkey would be the only EU nation that would be continually gaining seats and offices, causing the rest of "Europe" to continually cede power. I'm an American and as such I don't have any opinion as to whether or not Turkey ought to join the EU. But it's been my experience that Europeans are a bit... touchy... about their demographic situation, which may explain why no one has brought up your concerns. Anyway, Turkey's birth rate isn't that far above replacement level. Birth rates are dropping all over the world. What makes you think that Turkey's won't drop as well? Of course, even if Turkey's birth rate collapsed tomorrow population momentum, which will soon wear off in European countries like Germany, would keep its population expanding for some years to come. But eventually, and perhaps sooner than later, Turkey's demographics might converge with European demographics.
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Post by kynikos on Mar 19, 2004 1:04:07 GMT -5
indefens, I have it on reliable authority that despite its economic and other internal problems, Turkish authorities still encourage a high birth rate! Further than this, by way of analogy, I can say that it makes about as much sense for Turkey to join the EU, as it does for Mexico to join the U.S. as the next state! Oh, and why not Colombia, too? Something for your current government to remember when it encourages Turkish "European" aspirations Actually, I have no "ethnic" problem re Turkey joining, but there are SEVERE human rights, and social issues! Turkey does not currently separate church-and-state, despite any claims, nor state-and-military. There is little freedom of expression, and severely restricted freedom of religion, in fact. Politicaly pretty abysmal, too. What the h*ll are they going to do in the EU, other than dump 30 million unemployed? They need to get their own house in order first, a process which I estimate will take, oh, about a hundred years...
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Aybek
New Member
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Post by Aybek on Mar 19, 2004 5:50:13 GMT -5
I think that there is one more VERY important issue here, and one that hasn't received the attention it deserves. It is estimated that 20% - 40% of the Turkish population is ALEVI Muslim, which is a sect quite distinct from mainstream Turkish clerical Islam, with some really interesting (and I might add, noble) aspects. I AM AN ALEVI.......You can ask me what ever you want. Yes we are distinct from Sunnis but you cannot talk about a Turkish clerical Islam since there is not such class as clergy in Turkey. We can defend our rights ourselves. We do not need you......... This population group is completely oppressed within Turkey, because its presence gives the lie to the official Turkish policy whereby you can only be Secular Nationalist or Muslim Nationalist. You can say oppressed but not "completely oppressed". There is not something like an "official policy whereby you can only be secular nationalist or Muslim nationalist". Alevis are Muslim too..... It seems like Turks in West Thrace are much more oppressed than Alevis in Turkey. Please look at yourselves in the mirror and then criticize other countries. Sorry but you do not know anything about Turkey but you believe in that you know something ridiculously. Let me summarize shortly. Alevis were mostly socialist or communist and were mostly forming the left wing of the political arena. Ther were also millions of Sunnis having leftist ideologies of course. They are not liberal at all if you assume liberalism like ABD or EU. The problems with nationalists aroused not because we are Alevis but we were leftist and it was during the cold war era with the help of American manipulations. In fact nationalists cannot have any problems with Alevis since even the Ottoman army was based on Alevi-Bektashi sect and tradition. Alevis are very pro-Ataturk and in every Cem Evi (our religious buildings) we have a great Ataturk picture along with Ali (our religious leader along with Muhammed). We pray in Turkish not Arabic. We pray for Ataturk too Our religious practice is made women and men together. Alevis' religious practices are a mixture of pro-Islam pagan Turkic rituals and Islam. If you want I can give you a very long history of Alevis. But in Ottoman times problems have grown with the Iran-Ottoman rivalry. I want to remind you that Turkish people ruled Iran around 900 years. Selchuqs, Akkoyunlu, Karakoyunlu and Safavits were all Turkmen ruled states. Today in Iran there are 20 millions Turks live in the north part of the country and they are all Oghuz Turks as Anatolian Turks. Paradoxically, the Alevis, because of their liberal views are very ardent Kemalists, and put up with all sorts of state oppression because of a sence of duty to Mustafa Kemal! Most of the political dissent comes from their quarter too, with many commies, etc... They readily acknowledge that Kemal was not "pure" Turkish, and think of him as half-armenian or half-greek with no problem! Do we acknowledge that Kemal was not "pure" Turkish, and think of him as half-Armenian or half-Greek with no problem? We did not acknowledge this as far as I know. But you seem like you know us better than ourselves. ;D Why didn't you decide the ethnicity about Ataturk? Armenian or Greek? In fact you are not talking about the facts but you are trying to make some kind of propaganda according to your intellectual capacity. This is ridiculous. and consider the Ottomans as oppressors of the TURKISH people in the past!!! Yes this is true especially after the acquisition of the caliphate title of the Ottoman sultans by mid of 1500's. One of the reasons their case is coming into the spotlight is the more liberal conditions they have found in Germany which have allowed some cultural expression. No, in fact most of the militant Alevi communists who run away to Germany after the military coup in 1980, were Atheist. An Alevi cannot be atheist since Alevi sect is a religious sect. In fact by doing so they gave a very severe harm to Alevi identity. After the cold war and changing political climate in Turkey everything did not stay the same as every country. This is not related with Germany. I went to Germany and saw what they were trying to play tricky games on Alevis. I saw that in Germany some circles were trying to impose to Alevis that "you are not Turk but Kurds". As being an Alevi this has strengthen my identity of being Turk. It is impossible to impose an identity, which doesn't fit with realities. And they could not succeed it. Now they are claiming Ataturk was an Armenian or Greek. ;D We are laughing. This is very enjoying to see someone who is struggling with hatred stupidly. Graeme, this is OT, but the Anzacs got their asses kicked mainly because of their abysmal leadership rather than the abilities or otherwise of their foe. In fact this shows your stance towards Turkish people. You want to say that Turks are incapable of beating Europeans. You do not want to accept realities. Why? It is very hard to understand your psychology. We have clearly won the battle against an alliance of British, France and ANZACS armies. We had never expressed our feeling with sentences like "Anzacs got their asses kicked". We respect ANZACS since they were the bravest fighters and they were fighting honestly and clean. Do you know that Turks had refused to use poisoned gas in the battle when Germans proposed to use it against our enemies? If you do not have a strong character, you cannot win in the battle. Yesterday, we celebrated the anniversary of the victory of sea battles; 18 MARCH.
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Post by Melnorme on Mar 19, 2004 5:59:32 GMT -5
I AM AN ALEVI.......You can ask me what ever you want. What do you think about the 'Alawi' who control Syria?
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Post by geirr on Mar 19, 2004 6:29:06 GMT -5
We have clearly won the battle against an alliance of British, France and ANZACS armies. We had never expressed our feeling with sentences like "Anzacs got their asses kicked". We respect ANZACS since they were the bravest fighters and they were fighting honestly and clean. Do you know that Turks had refused to use poisoned gas in the battle when Germans proposed to use it against our enemies? If you do not have a strong character, you cannot win in the battle. This is true, Gallipoli is visited by thousands of Australians every year and the Turks show nothing but respect to the families and descendents of the veterans.
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Post by kynikos on Mar 19, 2004 6:48:17 GMT -5
Aybek,
I think you misunderstand me, and you rush to the defensive. There is no need for this, I am not hostile to you.
I am not an expert on Turkey, just interrested, especially about the Alevis. The information I conveyed was given to me by an Alevi Leftist ultra-Kemalist. He "worships" Attaturk, but declares himself rather atheist.
All this fits in exactly with what you say. I don't think I contradict you anywhere. If there are young "atheistic" Alevis, they still cannot have escaped the (positive) influence of their religion, even if they do rebel against it.
Thank you for your offer to tell me anything about the Alevi. I may well take you up on it.
As for the Anzacs, I didn't say they weren't brave, and I didn't say the Turks weren't brave either! They were all brave, but the British leadership was poor. This is not an excuse, it's a fact.
That's why I say it's not a good idea to be OVER-defensive, because then you think you hear people say things which they never did!
yours wIth respect
F
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Post by Artemidoros on Mar 19, 2004 7:08:12 GMT -5
I Graeme, this is OT, but the Anzacs got their asses kicked mainly because of their abysmal leadership rather than the abilities or otherwise of their foe. Although I agree that the outcome of the battle at Galipoli (Kalipolis) was mainly the result of British blunders, I would like to add that it takes nothing away from the heroism of the Anzac troops or the well known military prowess of the Turks. Graeme sounds a little like bringing ice to the Eskimos, by telling the Greeks about the Turks, but it is true that some Nationalistic circles in Greece show a tendency to overestimate the Greeks' war valour and underestimate that of the Turks'. History IMO has shown that when the Greeks decide to fight against the Turks, rather than leave it to foreign mercenaries while they pray in church, have managed to defeat them in many occasions. In many other occasions they have been defeated. One thing is for certain as shown in 1897 and 1920-22. The Greeks can not (on their own) take on an enemy that is 6 times their size, with armed forces that are equipped to at least equal standard and win in an offensive role. Due to the geography of the region they could probably hold their own in a defensive war. Unfortunately the old way of thinking is returning. No mercenaries this time, only the UN, the Americans, the EU. Let the foreigners defend Greek interests and pray everything will be alright. It will not be very long before the K. Anan plan for Cyprus is implemented. My only hope is the Greek Cypriots will vote against this monstrosity in a referendum. Otherwise it will be time to wave good bye to the whole of Cyprus. FOR GOD'S SAKE DO NOT LET THE CYPRIOT NATIONAL GUARD BE DISBANDED. CYPRUS IS ONLY 40 MILES FROM TURKEY AND ALMOST 500 FROM CRETE. DO NOT GIVE INTERVENTION RIGHTS TO TURKEY. If the Turks want to join the EU let them comply with international law first.
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Post by Artemidoros on Mar 19, 2004 7:20:46 GMT -5
Yesterday, we celebrated the anniversary of the victory of sea battles; 18 MARCH. I don't know what Mustapha Kemal was, I have no reason to consider him any less Turkish than yourself, but since you mentioned sea battles, do you know the ethnic background of Hayredin Barbaros-the greatest naval hero of Turkey? I used to know a Turkish Kurd, also an Alevi. He insisted Alevis believe in a mixture of Islam and Zoroastrianism and that light and the sun play an important part in their religion. He also considered Alevis as nominal Muslims. What is your position?
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Post by Graeme on Mar 19, 2004 8:29:46 GMT -5
What are you guys saying? One Australian is worth one hundred Turks! Yes, the Aussies got their arses kicked in Turkey because we allowed ourselves to be under the control of foreigners ie The Brits; we are still doing that today with the idiotic Yanks.
The correct English expression is "bring coals to Newcastle". Who cares about Eskimos?
I think you Greeks ought to put your hate aside, Turkey is a buffer against radical Islam a la El Qaida, pushing the Turks into a corner will backfire not only on Greece but the rest of Europe. Personally I despise Islam and I am not fond of Levantines, "Arabs" or other Easterners not because of what they look like, but their culture, attitudes and backwardness. The Turks are the most exposed of all moslems to European ways and culture. I would rather they were on my side not with the radical islamists.
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Post by Artemidoros on Mar 19, 2004 14:25:05 GMT -5
What are you guys saying? One Australian is worth one hundred Turks! :oWhat's your secret mate? OK. How about feta cheese to the Greeks? Personally I don't hate the Turks and I think neither do most Greeks. I hate what my ancestors allowed them to do to my country. I also hate the mechanisms of the Turkish State, which, driven by superpower wet dreams, are trying to reduce even further the territories where Greek culture survived for millenia. We Greeks do not feel so much the need for a buffer against radical Islam, as for a buffer against your chosen buffer. If Australians feel threatened by Islam, why don't you kick the Indonesians out of Papua and give them hell until they close all madrassas? They are the nurseries of radical Islam, the schools of hatred. The Malays realised that and closed them down. It is countries like Malaysia that should be examples, not Turkey. I hope you are not implying there is anything inherent that makes them backward.
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Post by kynikos on Mar 19, 2004 16:30:11 GMT -5
Graeme
Calm down cobber, this ain't a site for chauvist outbursts! Statements like that only serve to produce friction and hate, which I am sure you don't want to do....
Anyway, you know just as well as anyone that 100 Aussie bums aren't worth 1 decent Turk, the same way that 100 Turkish bums aren't worth 1 decent Aussie.
Obviously it depends on the individual, and that's a proven fact, mate, if such things interest you.
Other than that you seem rather confused in your attitude against the Turks. The one minute you are rubbishing them, the next you are extolling them. Unless you are delibarately trolling, which I'm sure you are not, you need to make up your mind a bit.
Most Aussies I know are remarkably clear in their thinking, so it shouldn't be too difficult.
G'day
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Post by Indefens on Mar 19, 2004 23:18:14 GMT -5
indefens, I have it on reliable authority that despite its economic and other internal problems, Turkish authorities still encourage a high birth rate! That doesn't surprise me, but nor does it mean that the birth rate in Turkey is going to stay where it is. They've been "encouraging a high birth-rate" in Sweeden for some time now, and it's still at around 1.4 (though it may be rising a bit these days, as women enter their thirties). What matters is what the people want, not the government.
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Sandwich
Full Member
La pens?e d'un homme est avant tout sa nostalgie
Posts: 208
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Post by Sandwich on Mar 20, 2004 15:06:34 GMT -5
Melnorme, the story of how the Alaouites came to dominate Syria is quite funny. As far as I know, they were not well seen in Sunni Syria, because their religion is closer to Shia Islam, more tolerant religiously, has adopted certain Christian practices, etc. Not being integrated into the normal networks it was difficult for them to get employment across the board, so they concentrated in certain particular low-paid state jobs. Then one day, the Sunni establishment woke up to find that one of the sectors that was dominated by Alaouites was - the Army! Too late by then. Aybek, please correct me if any of this is wrong.
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Praetor
Full Member
Graecus in Fennia
Posts: 246
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Post by Praetor on Mar 21, 2004 13:44:26 GMT -5
The point is that there is a muslim minority in Thrace that includes 3 different ethnic groups:Pomaks,who are speaking a slavic language with many greek and turkish elements,turkish-speaking and muslim gypsies.Thats why Greece is calling them "muslim minority".Turkey considers all of them turks.si,the whole thing is about the number of the turkish minority in Greece. The muslim population of Greece (approx.120.000) consists of 60% turks,35% pomaks and the rest are gypsies. Still things may not be exactly like this in the real world. I have a good friend from my university days,a muslim of turkish origin from Xanthi.He is not practising Islam and he defines himself as Greek.He is native Greek speaker (with a full macedonian/thracian heavy accent) and Greek is the tongue they use in his family.He knows turkish too but more as a second language.He claims to come from Hellenic populations of Thrace that were converted to Islam during the Ottoman period. With this I don't imply that most turks of Thrace are Greek.And of course some pomaks might embrace the Turkish ethnicity as well.
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Post by Artemidoros on Mar 21, 2004 17:03:30 GMT -5
Most reliable sources I have seen give the Gypsies as numbering about 20,000. Around 30,000 Pomaks and 60-70,000 Turks.
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