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Post by berschneider on Apr 9, 2004 11:06:11 GMT -5
Economically I don't think much will change in Europe in the next ten years, continued agricultural subsidies and protectionist practices as usual. The USA on the other hand will have to balance a budget that is getting out of hand. The 'war on terror' line will start to run thin when people start losing their jobs, consumer spending nosedives and the international creditors are knocking on the door. In the short term the USA will take a turn to the left, George W Bush wil be voted out of office and Sen. John Kerry moving into the white house. The government will take a more centralist approach and restore relations with the U.N. and E.U. The US military will soon leave Iraq which will quickly result in a civil war between the different parties there, ultimately resulting in a more unstable middle east. the palestine/israel conflict will continue unabated. China will continue to grow in an exponential rate economically becoming one of the strongest economies, possibly within twenty to thirty years rivaling the USA. Some countries that will be poorer in the next ten years? Germany(not by much), Hungary, Albania, South Africa(much poorer), Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Pakistan and India. Richer countries? Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece, China (will boom) and Malaysia will continue to grow. Scientific achievements won't be great, by 2014 computers obviously will be cheaper, faster and more powerful but Windows will still have bugs. There will be more probes to Mars ...yawn.. There will continue to be clones of different animals but a human clone won't happen in the next ten years despite what the Raelians say. I generally believe that the environment and general way of life in western countries will be better. Australia will have a change of government this year to the (centre left) labour party. I think the paranoia that exists in this country about terrorists will eventually dissapate and be replaced with a genuine concern for the security of the country rather than political opportunism over foreigners and ilegals. Our sycophantic servant relationship with the USA will end. actually sounds like a balanced set of predictions.
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Post by berschneider on Apr 9, 2004 11:07:14 GMT -5
India's economy is growing 10 percent a year and rising.It's booming! And it's predicted to be a developed countryy in 30 years which is not unrealistic at all. what is your definition of a "developed country?"
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Post by danielou on Apr 11, 2004 19:11:15 GMT -5
in 2040 :
Europe will look more and more to a third world country due to the high number of non caucasian immigrants, most of the time jobless or assisted. Collapse of the welfare state in Europe. Rise of Islam.
China becomes the most powerfull nation in the world and invades Taiwan. Its foreign policy looks more and more to the Japan one in 40's. The USA are not strong prevent it.
Palestinians are expelled from Israel by colons. Israel is in war with middle east nations to prevent them to get the nuclear weapon. Those nations are becomed fundamentalist and leaded by religious leaders.
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Post by darksphere on Apr 12, 2004 13:58:48 GMT -5
Hmmm... all of the predictions you have made here simply predicts current trends to continue.
Personally I expect that completely new things will happen and that most of the trends mentioned in this thread will turn out to be intermediary.
I think it is very hard to make predictions for such a short timespan as a decade. Had it been 40 years or something like that I would have a much easier time making predictions like that the US will fall apart.
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Post by Evan1211 on Jun 23, 2004 20:23:54 GMT -5
The U.S. will continue as it is.
Europe will pretend to still be the best (even though they will only have 1/10 the population.)
Africa will continue on its downward path for a few more years, then it will start to recover.
Asia will boom technologically. Communism will unofficially turn capitalist in China and it will rise as the biggest power in the world. India will slowly but surely gain influence and better quality of life.
The Middle East will still fight as usual (10 years isnt gonna stop 3000 years of fighting.)
And Latin America will attract immigrants from around the world and will be a fast-growing sector of the world.
50-100 years:
Population will slow!
100+:
China and the US will get in a war and the world as we know it will be over!
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Post by hyperkatz on Jul 3, 2004 0:08:32 GMT -5
Predictions:
Africa remains a basket case.
China becomes a powerful country and forms mostly economic alliances with other East Asian countries. China may eventually develop very sophisticated public transportation systems (bullet trains) as it is impossible (traffic jams, pollution, price of oil) for each of the 1 billion people in China to own a car.
Chinese settlers, developers, and businessmen will put pressure on neighboring Mongolia and Asian Russia. China's population density is much higher than Mongolia's or Siberia's.
Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam are prosperous countries and will develop better pension and social security systems for their people (Japan has this already).
"Software powerhouse" India cannot become a developed country unless it provides clean water, proper rubbish removal, and sanitary sewer systems for its nearly 1 billion people. These things were done 75-150 years ago in Europe and the USA, and the resultant public health improvements were key to the development of Europe and the USA. These large undertakings will not occur in India until corruption and the toleration of unsanitary conditions cease.
Islam in europe = a problem. The Muslims may try to violently resist efforts to secularize them.
Brazil will run into some problems because of its wanton attitude toward its forests. Argentina will recover economically. Mexico will grow and become a fully developed country by ~2020, but will have problems concerning water (large parts of Mexico are dry).
United States: Government deficit will cause some problems of slow growth (but not impoverishment). It will take several years for the U.S. to realize that it needs to work more closely with allies in Europe. Las Vegas and Phoenix will have serious water problems.
Indonesia will have some problems relating to population growth, natural resource destruction, and Islamic extremism.
Saudi Arabia's problems are largely because it was once a wealthy country with few people. Population growth has diluted the oil revenue, and there are few local industries other than oil. Several Middle Eastern countries will have problems over water.
Russia will slowly recover. Russians are well-educated and creative, but handicapped by some corruption. Russia may lose some territory in SE Siberia to China.
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Post by Italian Stallion on Jul 11, 2004 15:37:35 GMT -5
I see the beginning sof the following predictions taking shape in the next 10-15 years and achieving fruition by 2050. I think Russia will probably lose much territory to China and even Iran. Russia is hemeorraging so badly (population wise... ie, low births, HIV, drugs, booze) that it won't even be able to stop Iranians ( who could probably number 100 million by 2050. Russia's nuclear capabilities are in shambles aswell. Iranians could control at the Least Kazakstan and uzbeckistan) Europeans are too scared to stop the entry of Turkey into the EU, Turkey will "revive the ottoman empire" and make Europe its "Bitch". Turkey already has a pop comparable to Germany, and will overtake it in a few years ....remember, all people in Germany are not germans (about 10 million or so). USA will begin to splinter. Much ethnic rife due to increasing minorities (make that majorities), and the government will become more dictatorial.... since the population will also have a great divide between rich and poor. Outsourcing of jobs to india and china caused the erosion of the american middle class. Overall, standard of life in USA will decline... altho, I don't see its military capability declining so much that a reckless china would dare attack it.... the Chinese could win possibly in 50 years when they're technology comes on par with the US, but a war would come at too high of a cost to their own population.... and India could then conquer them once in a vulnerable position. america will have shutdown so many manufacturing facilities, so that if there ever was a war, that war effort won't be able to supply demand for too long. India and China may duke it out by 2050. Pakistan will be demolished by India long beforehand. Pakistan's nuclear technology depended a lot on blackmarket parts, whereas India's technology was all home grown. Beside, India economy will dwarf pakistan. Sub-saharan Africa will resemble a ghost town (HIV and emmigration... to Europe), and will probably be Islamized by North African Conquerors. North Africans will probably be allied with the Middle east or even the new Turkish empire.... or possibly the Iranians (who will control most of Russia's former satellite countries in Asia (kazakstan, uzbekistan, etc... if not russia itself). Indonesia will probably control Oceania, and Australia. Japan will become a territory of China. Israel will have been displaced by a juggernaught Arab population. Possible a nuclear war, but since isral is so small geographically, it can't stop the hordes of arabs. Arabs will have been militarized by this time, by China, who supply the arab nations with arms in exchange for oil, which a hugely industrialized China desperately needs. South america will remain relatively unscathed... and could possibly become the last bastion on earth where one could live in peace and have no threat from other nations. Brazil will become the head of a pan-south american republic. But, like I said, most of these predictions take place in the next 45 years, not in the next ten. TEXT
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Post by recluse on Jul 11, 2004 16:28:21 GMT -5
India's economy is growing 10 percent a year and rising.It's booming! And it's predicted to be a developed countryy in 30 years which is not unrealistic at all. Dammit, hindi. I want my job back!! ;D
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Post by recluse on Jul 11, 2004 16:31:24 GMT -5
I nominate this one I'd most like to bet on:
"...Windows will still have bugs." -- Geirr
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Post by fatman213 on Jul 11, 2004 18:20:39 GMT -5
I seriously doubt that China will be a military power on par with the USA within 10 years. Much of that is based on the data about the worlds' militaries at this link; www.globalsecurity.orgThis site is maintained by John Pike----supposedly a world class military expert. In fact, during last years race to liberate Baghdad, John Pike was often an expert commentator on CNN and Fox News Channel. Anyhow, based on John Pike, China currently has about 20-24 nuclear armed ICBMs aimed at the USA. Also, at least until very recently, the guidance systems on China ICBMS were quite suspect. However, how will Americas' deployment of its MISSILE SHIELD this month affect the balance of power? Here is the official site of Missile Defense USA www.acq.osd.mil/bmdo/bmdolink/html/bmdolink.htmlI can hear the knee jerk reaction from the America HATERS---"it will NEVER work". Truth is, it MUST work and necessity is the mother of invention. Consider what an American "STEALTH" fighter bomber could do to enemy missile batteries---------unseen by radar. American F-22 "Raptor" or B-2 Bombers could take out China ICBMS----in their silos. Or if that doesn't work, Americas' missile shield LASER will eventually be able to blast them out of the skies. Point is, the F22 and B2 bomber are FIRST STRIKE weapons. Add to this Americas 18 SSBN nuclear missile armed nuclear submarines. Keep in mind America, according to Global Security , maintains 10,000 nuclear weapons ---under treaty with Russia wh0o maintains about the same--10,000. Thus, at least until Americas' missile defense is up and running, the best China could hope for would be mutally assured destruction----and that assumes their 24 ICBMs will hit their American targets. Meanwhile, America could win an all out war with China by deliveribg a FATAL first strike using STEALTH fighter bombers. The F22 and the B2, not to mention the first generation stealth fighter, the F117 "night hawk". After the China ICBMs are off line, China becomes an easy target for American SSBN nuclear missile armed submarines----of which America has 18. Now, consider how the equation will change when by the end of the decade, Americas' missile shield should be fully capable of destroying ALL China ICBMs with LASERS and space based sensors. Its true that the new China ICBMs, the DF 31 and especially the DF 41 , are quite fearsome. But, as yet, they have not supposedly been deployed. And their depolyment would surely cause a ruckus with America----Chinas' largest CUSTOMER and largest foreign investor. I am sure the fact that about 25% of ALL China productiojn is USA bound would factor into the calculus. I mean, how could China call herself no foe of America and deploy DF31 and DF41 at American cities? Finally, the RAND CORP is an American government "Think Tank". Here is the report from RAND regarding Chinas continued economic growth; www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1686/Despite all the triumphalism from many Chinese, that countrys continued rise is far from certain. Anyone interested can read the RAND report and decide for themselves. Finally, the RAND Corp also has a study that Interprets Chinas "Grand Strategy" from a historical perspective, among others; www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1121/ Rand Crop estimates Chinas' economy will match the USA around 2025-----------IF current growth rates continue. But, on a per capita basis, this will still only be 15% of the USA. Anyhow, based on all this, I find it INCONCEIVEABLE China would launch a war on America----because they CANNOT win. As I said, the best they could hope for is an exchange--with their 24 ICBMs----assuming they all hit. Meanwhile, America would retaliate with its full nuclear arsenal. Finally, keep in mind that America could WIN an all out war with China launching its STEALTH fighter-bombers that can take out China nukes-------in their silos----------and UNSEEN by radar. The key, at least until the Missile Shield is online, is a fatal first strike that disables all enemy ICBMs in their SILOS! When Americas missile shield is fully operational by decades end, Chinas ICBMs will be worthless ;D
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Post by Melnorme on Jul 11, 2004 18:23:17 GMT -5
You got da skillz, fatman.
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Post by Italian Stallion on Jul 11, 2004 19:16:55 GMT -5
True that China has a very limited number of ICBMs... now. But given decades of continued economic development, they no doubt will pour much into weapons production and research which would see them catch up to the USA. We'll probably see a new cold war over the next 2 or 3 decades.... with no side wanting to be the first to cause a mutually destructive holocaust.
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Post by recluse on Jul 11, 2004 19:32:04 GMT -5
luchluchluch,
I agree with you. Fatman's post was pretty good but there were a few assumptions that I question:
1) America can continue to incur debt to pay for all sorts of government projects, including military adventures in the middle east. Will Europe and Asia be there to bail the US out when the US overextends itself? One answer is that they have no choice because they don't want to lose America as a market. But they may have no choice in the future because they aren't able. Necessity is the mother of invention, but it doesn't always carry the baby full term.
2) Chinese military technology will remain stagnant even though their economy won't.
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Post by Italian Stallion on Jul 11, 2004 19:46:43 GMT -5
Recluse, Interesting to see what will happen when all those creditors come knocking on the American's door. In ten years, most economies will still be joined at the hip with America's. But what about in 20 or 30years, when many new trading block such as the EU, India, and China, and South america can weather the storm of asking the americans to settle their tab?
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Post by geirr on Jul 12, 2004 1:51:33 GMT -5
I seriously doubt that China will be a military power on par with the USA within 10 years. The Chinese are not growing economically because they have a powerful military but because they are forging closer links with the rest of the world including the USA. You sound like some hick who has about 30 years supply of baked beans in his fallout shelter waiting anyday for nuclear armageddon. Get real dude, your government is spending 100's of billions of dollars on a missile defence shield that won't work. It would be funny except for the fact that my government has decided to pitch in financially aswell. The problem with this defence shield is not the fact that it won't work, but its a solution to a problem that that doesn't exist. The Soviet Union ceased more than a decade ago, the cold war is over and the chances of someone targeting the continental USA with ICBM's are about as likely as Elvis making a comeback. The future threat to the USA is terrorism, nutters flying planes into buildings or blowing themselves up and killing hundreds if not thousands in one go. In that scenario a 'missile defence shield' is about as useful as tits on a bull. The other problem with a defence shield is that potential threats like North Korea and Iran will just simply up the ante, build more missiles, more nukes and ultimately be more more of a threat. China will forge a stronger alliance with Europe and other Asian nations. It will compete with America in the race to Mars and may even invade Taiwan. When push comes to shove I doubt that the USA will come to Taiwan's aid, the economic oppurtunites in China are just too good.
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