Post by wadad on Dec 25, 2005 1:15:20 GMT -5
By the west I mean Roman Catholic and Protestant countries of western and central Europe, together with the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
I see the demise of the west, because post-Cold war, it seems like priorities of the USA and of the EU no longer go hand in hand. EU's post cold war priorities:
- Intergrating the former Soviet republics into the EU sphere
- Doing this to dilute Franco-German dominance, thus no fear of a future German hegemony. But the eu is taking the role of the late USSR with all this assimilation talk
- The exclusion of both Turkey and Russia from these re-alignments is also a direct descendant of the politics of the last two centuries. Both will probably gradually drift away from European (and Western) structures and seek their fortunes in the geopolitical twilight zones of the world.
- etc
The USA is unlikely to be of much help to Europe as it reasserts the Monroe doctrine and attends to its growing Pacific and Asian preoccupations. It may assist the EU to cope with Russian (and to a lesser extent, Turkish) designs in the tremulously tectonic regions of the Caucasus, oil-rich and China-bordering Central Asia, and the Middle East. But it will not do so in Central Europe, in the Baltic, and in the Balkan.
In the long-run, Muslims are the natural allies of the United States in its role as a budding Asiatic power, largely supplanting the former Soviet Union. Thus, the threat of militant Islam is unlikely to revive the West. Rather, it may create a new geopolitical formation comprising the USA and moderate Muslim countries, equally threatened by virulent religious fundamentalism. Later, Russia, China and India - all destabilized by growing and vociferous Muslim minorities - may join in.
What will happen to Militant Islam? Al Qaeda? IMO the west is not struggling against al Qaeda, but rather the conditions that brought about terrorism..Poverty, Ignorance, oppression, etc. So what will the west do to correct these? Seems like people who are not part of the mainstream resort to such methods...not only because they are desperate, but because terror works results wise and politically even.
History shows that all terrorist groupings ultimately join the mainstream. Many countries - from Israel to Ireland and from East Timor to Nicaragua - are governed by former terrorists. Terrorism enhances social upward mobility and fosters the redistribution of wealth and resources from the haves to haves not.
Al-Qaeda, despite its ominous portrayal in the Western press - is no exception. It, too, will succumb, in due time, to the lures of power and money. Nihilistic and decentralized as it is - its express goals are the rule of Islam and equitable economic development. It is bound to get its way in some countries.
I see the demise of the west, because post-Cold war, it seems like priorities of the USA and of the EU no longer go hand in hand. EU's post cold war priorities:
- Intergrating the former Soviet republics into the EU sphere
- Doing this to dilute Franco-German dominance, thus no fear of a future German hegemony. But the eu is taking the role of the late USSR with all this assimilation talk
- The exclusion of both Turkey and Russia from these re-alignments is also a direct descendant of the politics of the last two centuries. Both will probably gradually drift away from European (and Western) structures and seek their fortunes in the geopolitical twilight zones of the world.
- etc
The USA is unlikely to be of much help to Europe as it reasserts the Monroe doctrine and attends to its growing Pacific and Asian preoccupations. It may assist the EU to cope with Russian (and to a lesser extent, Turkish) designs in the tremulously tectonic regions of the Caucasus, oil-rich and China-bordering Central Asia, and the Middle East. But it will not do so in Central Europe, in the Baltic, and in the Balkan.
In the long-run, Muslims are the natural allies of the United States in its role as a budding Asiatic power, largely supplanting the former Soviet Union. Thus, the threat of militant Islam is unlikely to revive the West. Rather, it may create a new geopolitical formation comprising the USA and moderate Muslim countries, equally threatened by virulent religious fundamentalism. Later, Russia, China and India - all destabilized by growing and vociferous Muslim minorities - may join in.
What will happen to Militant Islam? Al Qaeda? IMO the west is not struggling against al Qaeda, but rather the conditions that brought about terrorism..Poverty, Ignorance, oppression, etc. So what will the west do to correct these? Seems like people who are not part of the mainstream resort to such methods...not only because they are desperate, but because terror works results wise and politically even.
History shows that all terrorist groupings ultimately join the mainstream. Many countries - from Israel to Ireland and from East Timor to Nicaragua - are governed by former terrorists. Terrorism enhances social upward mobility and fosters the redistribution of wealth and resources from the haves to haves not.
Al-Qaeda, despite its ominous portrayal in the Western press - is no exception. It, too, will succumb, in due time, to the lures of power and money. Nihilistic and decentralized as it is - its express goals are the rule of Islam and equitable economic development. It is bound to get its way in some countries.