Europe´s ethnic make up in 50 years

[Educate Me]

How will the low birth rates and immigration from african and middle east islamic countries affect the ethnic make up of europe?

How will europe look like in 50 years?

Which countries will be more affected? Which ones less?

How will it change society? Could they become the majority is some country?

[henerte]

Could they become the majority is some country?

The first nation in Europe that will become a minority in its own country are Macedonians. Albanians account for about 40% of today's Macedonia's population (if I remember correctly) and their number is still growing....

[Educate Me]

www.hooverdigest.org/043/ferguson2.html

"To begin with, consider the extraordinary prospect of European demographic decline. A hundred years ago—when Europe’s surplus population was still crossing the oceans to populate America and Australasia—the countries that make up today’s European Union accounted for around 14 percent of the world’s population. Today that figure is down to around 6 percent, and by 2050, according to a United Nations forecast, it will be just over 4 percent. The decline is absolute as well as relative. Even allowing for immigration, the United Nations projects that the population of the current European Union members will fall by around 7.5 million over the next 45 years. There has not been such a sustained reduction in the European population since the Black Death of the fourteenth century. (By contrast, the United States population is projected to grow by 44 percent between 2000 and 2050.)

With the median age of Greeks, Italians, and Spaniards projected to exceed 50 by 2050—roughly one in three people will be 65 or over—the welfare states created in the wake of World War II plainly require drastic reform. Either today’s newborn Europeans will spend their working lives paying 75 percent tax rates or retirement and “free” health care will simply have to be abolished. Alternatively (or additionally), Europeans will have to tolerate more legal immigration.

But where will the new immigrants come from? It seems very likely that a high proportion will come from neighboring countries, and Europe’s fastest-growing neighbors today are predominantly if not wholly Muslim. A youthful Muslim society to the south and east of the Mediterranean is poised to colonize—the term is not too strong—a senescent Europe.

This prospect is all the more significant when considered alongside the decline of European Christianity. In the Netherlands, Britain, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark today, fewer than 1 in 10 people now attend church once a month or more. Some 52 percent of Norwegians and 55 percent of Swedes say that God does not matter to them at all. Although the social and sexual freedoms that matter to such societies are antithetical to Muslim fundamentalism, their religious tolerance leaves these societies weak in the face of fanaticism.

What the consequences of these changes will be is very difficult to say. A creeping Islamicization of a decadent Christendom is one conceivable result: While the old Europeans get even older and their religious faith weaker, the Muslim colonies within their cities get larger and more overt in their religious observance. A backlash against immigration by the economically Neanderthal Right is another: Aging electorates turn to demagogues who offer sealed borders without explaining who exactly is going to pay for the pensions and health care. Nor can we rule out the possibility of a happy fusion between rapidly secularized second-generation Muslims and their post-Christian neighbors. Indeed, we may conceivably end up with all three: situation 1 in France, situation 2 in Austria, and situation 3 in Britain. "

[asdf]

The Indian gypsie people are going to start becoming a huge part of Bulgaria.

[anodyne]

"With the median age of Greeks, Italians, and Spaniards projected to exceed 50 by 2050—roughly one in three people will be 65 or over—the welfare states created in the wake of World War II plainly require drastic reform. Either today’s newborn Europeans will spend their working lives paying 75 percent tax rates or retirement and “free” health care will simply have to be abolished. Alternatively (or additionally), Europeans will have to tolerate more legal immigration."

You can't have more kids (and therefore future workers) because you can't afford it since the tax man stalks you everywhere you go. But when you retire and demand your compensation the tax man will disappear without a trace, or even worse, the tax man will be replaced with a schimatar weilding fanatic.

[eufrenio]

What the consequences of these changes will be is very difficult to say. A creeping Islamicization of a decadent Christendom is one conceivable result: While the old Europeans get even older and their religious faith weaker, the Muslim colonies within their cities get larger and more overt in their religious observance. A backlash against immigration by the economically Neanderthal Right is another: Aging electorates turn to demagogues who offer sealed borders without explaining who exactly is going to pay for the pensions and health care. Nor can we rule out the possibility of a happy fusion between rapidly secularized second-generation Muslims and their post-Christian neighbors. Indeed, we may conceivably end up with all three: situation 1 in France, situation 2 in Austria, and situation 3 in Britain. "

Great, so opposing the "creeping Islamicization" of your country makes you part of the "economically Neanderthal Right"!

[henerte]

What the consequences of these changes will be is very difficult to say. A creeping Islamicization of a decadent Christendom is one conceivable result: While the old Europeans get even older and their religious faith weaker, the Muslim colonies within their cities get larger and more overt in their religious observance. A backlash against immigration by the economically Neanderthal Right is another: Aging electorates turn to demagogues who offer sealed borders without explaining who exactly is going to pay for the pensions and health care. Nor can we rule out the possibility of a happy fusion between rapidly secularized second-generation Muslims and their post-Christian neighbors. Indeed, we may conceivably end up with all three: situation 1 in France, situation 2 in Austria, and situation 3 in Britain. "

1) Europe is not becoming atheistic and religion has hardly any connection with demographic changes. The number of regular churchgoers is going down but is the number of christians going down? I don't think so. Most people anyway feel some sort of cultural connection to christianity.

2) Atheism is also a kind of religion and I have a feeling that atheists are even more worried by the "creeping islamicization" than christians.

3) Second generation immigrants from muslim countries have very often more difficulties with assimilation than their parents.

[henerte]

seizure said:

The Indian gypsie people are going to start becoming a huge part of Bulgaria.

I think there are more Gypsies in Romania than Bulgaria. Bulgaria has a strong turkish minority that is quite politically conscious.

[asdf]

henerte said:

seizure said:

The Indian gypsie people are going to start becoming a huge part of Bulgaria.

I think there are more Gypsies in Romania than Bulgaria. Bulgaria has a strong turkish minority that is quite politically conscious.

I looked them both up since you mention it, and it's 5% in Bulgaria and 2.5% in Romania. Or at least according to that horrible CIA factbook. Regardless, it's a big deal in both countries because they have very high birth rates, and the Bulgarians/Romanians very low ones.

[gandoe]

France = Berberia
Germany = New Turkey
The Netherlands = New Morocco
United Kingdom = West Pakistan

[asdf]

Don't forget Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, Spain, etc.

[henerte]

seizure said:

henerte said:

I think there are more Gypsies in Romania than Bulgaria. Bulgaria has a strong turkish minority that is quite politically conscious.

I looked them both up since you mention it, and it's 5% in Bulgaria and 2.5% in Romania. Or at least according to that horrible CIA factbook. Regardless, it's a big deal in both countries because they have very high birth rates, and the Bulgarians/Romanians very low ones.

I just think that the number of Gypsies in Romania is heavily underestimated...

They probably mess around with the statistics.

[Igu]

gandoe said:

France = Berberia

Don't be a retard, French are pro Arab, they do everything to arabize Berbers (they teach them Arabic in france!!), they are going to change their constitition in order to build mosques...etc, Berbers will be non-existent there.

France will be Arabo-islamic.

[osservatore]

igu said:

gandoe said:

France = Berberia

Don't be a retard, French are pro Arab

Well, if average French are like average italians, I suspect they simply ignore the difference!

[prince99]

you forgot to mention Sweeden becoming a heavily iranic country lol. iranic meaning also kurds, afghans etc.