What is the future of Japan?

[gelaye]

What do you guys see japan becoming in the next 100/200 years? will it continue to progress with technology to a point it maintains its position as world leader in all things miniture and futuristc and will it expand its influencE?

or will it decline due to china?

or will it become completely westernised and have a nationalist revolution banning all things 'western' LOL

[nockwasright]

I think the most important issue about Japan's future now is the birth rate, that is way below replacement level.
This is a phenomenon of these years, in Japan and Europe (I mean the spontaneous reducing of the population just because people don't wont children) and nobody knows what will happen.
They will probably reorganise society to better fit a population made up mostly by elders. And children will be as spoiled as can be (same is happening in Italy, were for every children there is the undivided attention of two parents and four grandparents).

[MC anunnaki]

It's not just the developed countries. I've read that Iran has managed quite well to supress their birthrates.

www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update4ss.htm

From the above link:

Iran's Birth Rate Plummeting at Record Pace:
Success Provides a Model for Other Developing Countries

Iran's population growth rate dropped from an all-time high of 3.2 percent in 1986 to just 1.2 percent in 2001, one of the fastest drops ever recorded. In reducing its population growth to 1.2 percent, a rate only slightly higher than that of the United States, Iran has emerged as a model for other countries that want to accelerate the shift to smaller families.

[...]


From 1986 to 2001, Iran's total fertility-the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime-plummeted from seven to less than three. The United Nations projects that by 2010 total fertility will drop to two, which is replacement-level fertility.

[...]

Because almost 40 percent of Iran's population is under the age of 15, population momentum is strong and growth in the immediate future is inevitable. To keep growth rates low, Iran needs to continue emphasizing the social value of smaller families.

Among the keys to Iran's fertility transition are universal access to health care and family planning, a dramatic rise in female literacy, mandatory premarital contraceptive counseling for couples, men's participation in family planning programs, and strong support from religious leaders. While Iran's population policies and health care infrastructure are unique, its land and water scarcity are not. Other developing countries with fast-growing populations can profit by following Iran's lead in promoting population stability.

[henerte]

I think you are messing things up. Japan is highly modernized country but it doesn't have to mean it's westernized. Modernization doesn't have to mean Westernization.

Actually, a population decline can have some positive aspects for Japan. The country is about 370 thousand square kilometers with population of about 125 million people. It means it's three times more densely populated than Europe and almost as densely populated as Belgium. That's why people there are crammed into huge, overcrowded and dehumanzied cities - something that people tend to avoid. Furthermore, it's topographical structure is characterized by quite numerous mountain areas, and the body of the country is not "collected" but spread out through vast geographical areas (mainly from South to North) - it means shortage of areable areas and space for cities.

[MC anunnaki]

henerte said:

Modernization doesn't have to mean Westernization.

That's what I wish for Iran.

[gelaye]

I think that Japan's influence in Asia will become restricted to Pop cultue (it will export hundereds of pop stars across asia LOL) and TNCs that employ people outside of japan

It will still remain the most wealthy country (in terms of wealth per person) in asia i think......and most developed

[nockwasright]

gelaye said:

I think that Japan's influence in Asia will become restricted to Pop cultue (it will export hundereds of pop stars across asia LOL) and TNCs that employ people outside of japan

This I doubt. Actually it seems that Japanese culture does not produce "superstars". If you consider the importance of Japanese economy in the world, their success on a wolrd scale in some fields of culture (as literature, and of course anime), it's remarkable that they have absolutely no world renowed superstars, not even Japanese American.
Why do you think this will change?

[Circe]

nockwasright said:

it's remarkable that they have absolutely no world renowed superstars, not even Japanese American.

And Pizzicato Five?

[human2]

Circe said:

And Pizzicato Five?

Okkk...

Nock, they have "superstars", popular in Asia that is.

[vela]

And Shonen Knife?

[Circe]

And Hamasaki Ayumi?

[nockwasright]

Well, I don't know any of them so I guess they are not worldwide superstar as Madonna, Stallone, Stanley Jordan or Jackie Chan. I'm a fan of Kitano, but out of his country he is just a director, not a star.
Somehow I believed that the "shy" character of Japanese culture, meaning that it seems to condemn excessive display of personality, was a factor in this "no superstars" phenomenon.
It's more based on Japanese Americans as compared with other minorities in the USA than on Japanese compared to, say, Europeans, as it's quite hard to became a world wide star for non English speaking people.
However the fact they have superstars in Asia quite denies this "theory", so maybe I was all wrong.

[gelaye]

japanese singers are popular in asia but little heard of in the west - due to obvious cultural reasons.

Japanese people tend to have addictive/obsessive personalities lol so they churn out loads and loads of popstars in the hope that screaming teenagers will follow which ever one appears to be the new 'cool' guy/gal

I think Japan should export some music over to the west, the cheesyness could become kitsch and fashionable LOL (dont get me wrong i love j-pop)haha

[WayneKerr]

the future for japan as far as demographics goes i think is...

a continued slowing in population growth/natural growth to the point of decline. perhaps we'll see a slight rise in immigration to balance this. initially of neighboring mongoloids from korea, and china. this will likely become the initial significant ethnic minority in japan, and maybe even the significant minority (i.e. several percent in size). this is what i think is most likely over the next say 30 years.

it's possible that they may follow a kind of run-away trend, and move to more ethnic looking immigrants, due to economic reasons, and then this would significantly alter the homogenity of japan. i.e. we're talking about s.e. asians, s.asians, and even working the way into middle easterners, and africans. although this is a big question mark. so far it's been traditionally white western countries such as those in europe, north america, and oceania to recruit ethnic peoples in significant numbers. would be interesting to see a major oriental mongoloid country, such as japan or s.korea take on a real multiracial society.

as for the general outlook of a declining demographic, lowering birth rates. theres generally much emphasis on the good of this. but i think there's limits to how far nations should go in this. ideally i think most nations with declining birth rates, below 2.1 should strive for a 2.1 stable fertility rate. anything below this, is just as unpredictable and challenging as anything above it.

i think for some nations such as the many african nations with high birth rates in the 5-6 children range. this is only natural and acceptable. people of europe, americas, and much of asia had these high birth rates in the not to distant past, then they reached a good population-land fit. i see the same will happen to africa, it will impede on the economic development a bit, but overall africa is a very resourceful & large continent, with an arguably sparse population, gradual expansion to a ~2bn population seems realistic for africa. trying to force africans down to less than 2 children per woman, just so the economic growth can be a few percentage points higher, seems like trying to turbo charge a bus in the slow lane of traffic.

[asdf]

anunnaki said:

henerte said:

Modernization doesn't have to mean Westernization.

That's what I wish for Iran.

What do you wish for Sweden?